Elections 2021 in El Salvador: Nuevas Ideas, and the phenomenon of Nayib Bukele

Elections 2021 in El Salvador: Nuevas Ideas, and the phenomenon of Nayib Bukele

Luis Eduardo Aguilar/ Political Scientist

Nuevas Ideas (NI) won the past legislative, municipal, and Central American Parliament elections in El Salvador on February 28th, 2020. The candidate's policy proposal and agenda were irrelevant themself, as long as they demonstrated unwavering loyalty to President Bukele. In the political campaign, the most noticeable slogans were: "Vote for the N of Nayib "and" Nuevas Ideas, our president's party. NI campaigned actively presented the political party as an alternative option to traditional Salvadoran political parties, the rightist ARENA, and the leftist FMLN. NI promoted a new party that, according to its statutes, has no "Outdated ideologies." Thus, the past elections' unprecedented political results changed the political power configuration among the Salvadoran Party System. The traditional political forces, FMLN and ARENA, became a weak and fragmented political opposition while NI reached political dominancy. Amidst this new scenario, some questions arise: Why did Nuevas Ideas obtain such overwhelming victory? What are the direct effects of this victory in the political system? What problems could bring this situation?

 

Before answering those questions, it is necessary to acknowledge some aspects that allow Nuevas Ideas to win this election. The first one is related to the Salvadoran Crisis of Representation. Public Opinion perceives the Legislative Assembly and the traditional parties as weak public institutions unable to tackle unemployment, degradation of social services, corruption, insecurity, and other social issues. Moreover, ARENA and FMLN leaders rejected internal criticism dismissing their sympathizer demands of ideological coherence. Because of the neglect, former supporters, apathetic and a suffering mass, found themselves less and less identified with those traditional parties.

Secondly is the association of Nuevas Ideas with president Bukele himself. He changed the moderate discourse of the "traditional politicians" for a disruptive one, satisfying the masses' desire for retaliation against traditional political leaders; thus, his narrative focuses on attacking political opponents. Moreover, his publicity strategies of eye-catching headlines announcing food bag distribution and economic incentive as COVID relief policy, the adaptation of the Center for Fairs and Conventions (CIFCO) in a Hospital for COVID-19, and the social programs -as the distribution of computers for students- during electoral campaign time. Social media became his central platform of communication, attracting exceptionally high numbers of young people. For example, he has used Twitter to fired several officials. So, the Salvadorans who felt abandoned by traditional politicians or "the same old ones," as his campaign claimed, founded a new defender, Nayib Bukele.

Given this scenario, what are the direct effects of Nuevas Ideas's victory in the political system? In El Salvador, the National Assembly is made up of 84 seats; 43 constitute a simple majority and 56 a qualified majority. Taxes and fee decrees on goods and services are created with the parliamentary votes called Simple Majority. And, the election of Magistrates of the Court of Accounts, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, and the Supreme Justice Court need with the Qualified Majority of parliamentary votes; also a Qualified Majority of parliamentary votes elect the General Attorney of the Republic and the Human Rights Ombudsman, concessions for the exploitation of natural resources and approval of the Nation's general budget. According to the election's preliminary results, NI obtained a Qualified Majority in the parliament, granting the president's party the accumulation of unprecedented political power and a wide range of political decisions for the Central American country.

In such a scenario, What are the potentials problems of NI overwhelming political power? First, nepotism, meaning the practice among those with power or influence of favoring relatives or friends. Indeed, Bukele denounced the corruption and nepotism of the previous governments. However, he still placed his relatives and people from his close circle in crucial government positions without evaluating their professional suitability. Also, some officials took advantage of their spot to run as candidates in this election. Many were unknown, but they won a seat because of their proximity to Bukele. Other "old traditional politicians" now have become popular again because of their loyalty to the president, for example, Walter Araujo, a former congressman. He signed the Pension System law and the dollarization law in the 2000s. Also, Will Salgado, a former Major at San Miguel, openly reproducing despotic political practice. Both of them, long-lasting politicians that have been able to renovate their political credentials and popularity by showing subordination to Bukele.

 

Second, the lack of transparency and accountability in the COVID-19 relief policies such as food bag distribution, economic incentive, adaptation of the Center for Fairs and Conventions (CIFCO) in a Hospital for COVID-19, and the computer distribution for students. The transparency in their funds' management is not compelling. Their final cost is unclear and unknown in the long run; plus, their funding comes from unsustainable sources, such as international loans. During the campaign, Bukele said it was necessary to get rid of the old politics and that he had to concentrate power to apply justice. But his party have multiple allegations of corruption during the quarantine, with no official formal prosecution.

 

Third, the concentration of power leads to an authoritarian trap. The Government makes repeated references to "changing the system," using radical and even aggressive rhetoric. It also provides a central role to the armed forces and the National Civil Police, even violating constitutional rights where legality is an obstacle that is necessary avoid. However, many citizens do not see those authoritarian and militaristic policies as a dangerous threat. However, the concentration of power could easily misuse those institutions to capture State's total capture. The historical political structure in El Salvador demonstrates that power concentration and military intervention in public affairs, and moral warnings can destroy social consensus. In such a scenario, the most affected would be the great majority.

 

In conclusion, Nuevas Ideas obtained such an overwhelming victory due to the crisis of representation of the traditional parties (Arena and FMLN) and the disruptive discourse and actions of Bukele. Those have attracted a large number of voters who no longer supported traditional parties. On the other hand, the effect of this victory of NI is the composition of a dominant party; this will allow the president to nominate trusted officials in the institutions of control of the political system, where the Legislative Assembly would only confirm those nominations. However, some of the dangers of the new political scenario are the possibility of appointing officials without having the required qualities and the lack of transparency and accountability that may exist when these officials carry out their positions. Situations like this could bring the repetition of recipes and routines that are economically unsustainable. That's the real problem.